Today, Bloomberg ETF experts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart raised their odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC to 75% by the end of this year, and 95% by the end of 2024.
“The chances of the SEC approving spot Bitcoin ETFs this year have risen from 75% from 65% following Grayscale’s court win, we believe, while the odds by the end of 2024 reach 95%,” stated the experts. “The judges unanimously repudiated the SECs arguments, and the agency will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deadlines, negative PR and HashDex’s novel approach.”
Yesterday, the DC Circuit court of appeals left the SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s $GBTC conversion into a spot Bitcoin ETF. While this did not lead to GBTC immediately being transformed to a spot Bitcoin ETF, this triumph was a huge action towards the approval of one in the future.
“The appeals court found the SEC to be arbitrary and capricious in its denial oder of GBTC’s conversion into an ETF and vacated the decision,” the experts continued. “The written opinion from Judge Neomi Rao repudiated virtually every argument made by the SEC when comparing the Bitcoin spot and futures markets.”
A SEC choice on numerous spot Bitcoin ETFs is due by the end of today, with numerous thinking the applications will be additional postponed as these so near the Grayscale court result that simply occurred. Although, Balchunas said he’s “not sure timelines will matter as much in this situation,” which what is most likely is that ultimately the SEC will give up and authorize an impending launch.
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